MarketsWatchMarket Brief
Finin2min Daily Brief | 25 June 2026
Sensex, Nifty Extend Gains for Second Straight Session — Brent Crude Falls Below $73, Near Pre-War Levels, as Hormuz Traffic Normalizes Further
Finin2min
Evening Market Intelligence Wrap
🛢️ Crude Hits Pre-War Levels Edition
Thursday, June 25, 2026
Sensex
77,100
▲ +109 pts · +0.14%
Nifty 50
24,056
▲ +34 pts · +0.14%
Nifty Auto
26,978
▲ +2.25% · top sectoral gainer
InterGlobe Aviation
₹5,462
▲ ~5% · top Nifty gainer
Brent Crude
~$72.7
▼ −1.45% · near pre-war level
India VIX
13.05
▼ −2.5%
Gold (Spot)
~$3,988
▼ Below $4,000 · 8-month low
📅 Thursday, June 25, 2026 · Day Snapshot
Crude Nears Pre-War Levels as Markets Extend Gains for a Second Day — But Profit-Booking Trims Early Highs Ahead of the Long Weekend
Thursday started strong and ended modestly, as Indian benchmarks rose for a second straight session but gave up most of their intraday gains. The Sensex touched an intraday high of 812 points above Wednesday's close and the Nifty 50 hit 24,262, before profit-booking ahead of Friday's Muharram holiday pulled both back. The Sensex finally settled 109.25 points higher (+0.14%) at 77,100.47, and the Nifty 50 added 34.35 points (+0.14%) to close at 24,056 — taking the two-session gain to 1.18% and 0.97% respectively. The standout story was crude: Brent crude for August settlement fell 1.45% to $72.67 a barrel, down more than 8% over the week and now sitting close to pre-conflict, pre-war levels, as stranded tankers resumed normal movement through the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said flows through the Strait were close to pre-war levels, with at least 20 million barrels having exited in the prior 24 hours. Nine of 15 major NSE sectoral gauges closed higher, led by Nifty Auto's 2.25% surge as falling fuel costs lifted the outlook for vehicle demand — Samvardhana Motherson (+4.97%), TVS Motor (+3.94%), Ashok Leyland (+3.93%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (+3.87%) all rallied. IT, metal, pharma, consumer durables and oil & gas faced selling pressure. Broader markets underperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.55% and Nifty Smallcap 100 down 0.47%. India VIX fell a further 2.5% to 13.05, continuing its decline from earlier in the week. Markets will remain closed Friday for Muharram and reopen Monday, June 29.
Sensex +109 · Nifty closes above 24,050
Brent ~$72.7 · near pre-war level
Nifty Auto +2.25% · M&M, TVS lead
IT, metal, pharma lag
India VIX falls to 13.05
Markets shut Friday for Muharram
🛢️ The Big Story — Crude Nears Pre-War Levels
Brent Crude $72.67 · Down 8%+ This Week · Stranded Tankers Resume Hormuz Transit
Crude's Decline Has Surprised Even Seasoned Traders With Its Pace — The Market Is Pricing a Faster Return of Middle East Barrels Than Anticipated Just Two Weeks Ago
"The market is pricing in a much faster return of Middle Eastern barrels than most had anticipated just a fortnight ago."
— Energy Market Analyst, cited by HDFC SKY
— Energy Market Analyst, cited by HDFC SKY
Brent / WTI Close
Brent: $72.67/bbl (−1.45%) · WTI: ~$70.07/bbl (−0.38%) — both near pre-conflict levels
Hormuz Normalisation
US Energy Secretary Chris Wright: flows close to pre-war levels, 20M+ barrels exited the Strait in the prior 24 hours
Weekly Decline
Crude has lost more than 8% in one week, as optimism builds around a near-term end to the broader conflict
India Read-Through
Auto, aviation and logistics stocks rallying directly on lower fuel-cost expectations; petrol/diesel relief still pending full pass-through
🇺🇸 Washington — The War's Political Bill Comes Due
White House Supplemental Request · $87.6 Billion · Submitted to Congress Wednesday
Trump Administration Seeks $67 Billion to Replenish Pentagon Stocks After the Iran War, a Day After the Senate Passed a War Powers Resolution
The White House on Wednesday formally requested $87.6 billion in supplemental funding from Congress, with the bulk — about $67 billion — earmarked to replenish Defense Department stocks depleted during the US-led attack on Iran (referred to in official correspondence as "Operation Epic Fury"), including $21 billion for munitions and $17.3 billion for operational costs. The request arrived just hours after President Trump reportedly engaged in a heated exchange with a Republican senator during a private lunch, over GOP votes to approve a war powers resolution intended to limit further military action — a measure that passed the Senate on Tuesday with four Republicans joining Democrats.
The request faces a difficult path: Senate Appropriations Committee's top Democrat, Patty Murray, said she would not "rubber-stamp tens of billions more for this disastrous war of choice," and other Senate Democrats including Chris Murphy and Mazie Hirono signalled the package "seems designed not to pass." With Republicans holding slim majorities, the bill will need Democratic votes — putting the funding's fate, and the broader question of how the Iran conflict's costs get settled, squarely into election-year politics ahead of the 2026 midterms. For markets, this is a slow-burning fiscal and political risk rather than an immediate catalyst — but it underscores that the war's resolution on the battlefield doesn't end its economic and political tail.
The request faces a difficult path: Senate Appropriations Committee's top Democrat, Patty Murray, said she would not "rubber-stamp tens of billions more for this disastrous war of choice," and other Senate Democrats including Chris Murphy and Mazie Hirono signalled the package "seems designed not to pass." With Republicans holding slim majorities, the bill will need Democratic votes — putting the funding's fate, and the broader question of how the Iran conflict's costs get settled, squarely into election-year politics ahead of the 2026 midterms. For markets, this is a slow-burning fiscal and political risk rather than an immediate catalyst — but it underscores that the war's resolution on the battlefield doesn't end its economic and political tail.
"After dragging America into a reckless war, he now wants Congress to hand him tens of billions more to paper over the damage — while families are still paying higher prices."
— Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer
— Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer
Total Request
$87.6B
Defense Share
$67.1B
Path in Congress
Uncertain
Lead Story
🛢️ The War Premium Is Gone — But Its Bills Are Just Arriving
Crude's Round-Trip Back to Pre-War Levels Is the Cleanest Resolution of This Story Yet — Even as Washington's Political and Fiscal Reckoning Is Only Beginning
It's worth pausing on what actually happened to oil this week, because it's a genuinely unusual outcome: a four-month war that, at its peak, threatened to close one of the world's most important shipping chokepoints, has now fully round-tripped in crude pricing terms. Brent at $72.67 is, per multiple traders quoted this week, essentially back to where it stood before the conflict began in late February — a decline that has "surprised traders" with its pace, as the market prices in a faster return of Middle Eastern barrels than almost anyone expected a fortnight ago.
For India, this is unambiguously good news, and today's session showed it cleanly: Nifty Auto's 2.25% rally, led by Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motor and Ashok Leyland, and InterGlobe Aviation's continued outperformance (up roughly 5% to ₹5,462) are the market pricing in lower fuel costs flowing through to consumer demand and corporate margins. The fact that the broader Sensex and Nifty gains were modest (+0.14% each) while these specific crude-sensitive pockets rallied sharply tells you this was a targeted, mechanism-driven move rather than a broad risk-on day — consistent with profit-booking trimming the early-session highs ahead of Friday's holiday.
The less comfortable part of today's news is what's happening in Washington. A war can end on the battlefield and in oil markets while still generating a long political and fiscal tail. The White House's $87.6 billion supplemental request — most of it to replenish Pentagon stocks — is now caught in exactly the kind of partisan gridlock that could keep this story in headlines for months, even as the underlying market-relevant facts (Hormuz reopened, oil cheap, ceasefire holding) have already been digested by markets. It's a reminder that "the war is over" and "the war's costs are settled" are two very different claims.
Layered on top: gold's crash below $4,000 — its lowest since November — is the clearest signal yet that markets have moved past treating Iran-related risk as a reason to hold safe havens, and are now focused almost entirely on the Fed's rate path. With September hike odds at 68% (up from 29% a week ago), and today's critical US PCE inflation print due after Indian markets closed, the rest of this week's global market story is arguably more about the Fed than about Iran.
📊 Crude near pre-war levels is the cleanest "this story is over" signal yet — but gold's crash and Washington's funding fight show two new storylines (Fed policy, war-cost politics) are already taking its place.
For India, this is unambiguously good news, and today's session showed it cleanly: Nifty Auto's 2.25% rally, led by Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motor and Ashok Leyland, and InterGlobe Aviation's continued outperformance (up roughly 5% to ₹5,462) are the market pricing in lower fuel costs flowing through to consumer demand and corporate margins. The fact that the broader Sensex and Nifty gains were modest (+0.14% each) while these specific crude-sensitive pockets rallied sharply tells you this was a targeted, mechanism-driven move rather than a broad risk-on day — consistent with profit-booking trimming the early-session highs ahead of Friday's holiday.
The less comfortable part of today's news is what's happening in Washington. A war can end on the battlefield and in oil markets while still generating a long political and fiscal tail. The White House's $87.6 billion supplemental request — most of it to replenish Pentagon stocks — is now caught in exactly the kind of partisan gridlock that could keep this story in headlines for months, even as the underlying market-relevant facts (Hormuz reopened, oil cheap, ceasefire holding) have already been digested by markets. It's a reminder that "the war is over" and "the war's costs are settled" are two very different claims.
Layered on top: gold's crash below $4,000 — its lowest since November — is the clearest signal yet that markets have moved past treating Iran-related risk as a reason to hold safe havens, and are now focused almost entirely on the Fed's rate path. With September hike odds at 68% (up from 29% a week ago), and today's critical US PCE inflation print due after Indian markets closed, the rest of this week's global market story is arguably more about the Fed than about Iran.
Today's Key Stories
Falling Crude Lifts the Entire Auto Complex; Samvardhana Motherson Tops Gainers at +4.97% as Fuel-Cost Relief Improves Demand Outlook
The Nifty Auto index added 2.25% to close at 26,977.75, recovering from a 0.77% decline over the previous two sessions. Samvardhana Motherson International led with a 4.97% gain, followed by TVS Motor Company (+3.94%), Ashok Leyland (+3.93%), Mahindra & Mahindra (+3.87%), Maruti Suzuki (+3.79%), Uno Minda (+3.04%), Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (+1.13%), Bharat Forge (+1.08%) and Bajaj Auto (+1.02%). The rally tracks directly to crude's continued slide toward pre-war levels, which improves the near-term cost outlook for both vehicle manufacturers and the consumers who buy from them.
Separately, Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles shares rose as much as 5.73% to ₹435 after CEO Girish Wagh offered an optimistic outlook, telling PTI that while the West Asia war's diesel price hike would have a short-term impact on domestic commercial vehicle demand (expected to grow in single digits this fiscal), India's broader macroeconomic growth would help the segment overcome it in the long term.
📊 Auto's 2.25% single-day gain, against a flat headline index, is the clearest sector-specific expression of the crude-normalisation trade this week.
Separately, Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles shares rose as much as 5.73% to ₹435 after CEO Girish Wagh offered an optimistic outlook, telling PTI that while the West Asia war's diesel price hike would have a short-term impact on domestic commercial vehicle demand (expected to grow in single digits this fiscal), India's broader macroeconomic growth would help the segment overcome it in the long term.
IndiGo Parent Remains the Nifty's Standout Performer for a Second Consecutive Session as Falling Aviation Turbine Fuel Costs Boost the Outlook
InterGlobe Aviation was again the Nifty 50's top gainer Thursday, rising nearly 5% to close at ₹5,462, continuing Wednesday's 4.77% advance. The stock's back-to-back outperformance is the most direct, sustained read-through of the crude-price story in Indian equities this week — aviation turbine fuel costs are highly sensitive to crude, and falling fuel costs flow almost immediately into airline margin expectations.
With Brent now near pre-war levels and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirming Hormuz traffic is close to normal, the structural case for continued ATF cost relief looks reasonably durable — though full normalisation, per Wright's own comments, will still take "a few more weeks" as demining operations continue.
📊 Two consecutive sessions as the Nifty's top gainer makes InterGlobe Aviation this week's cleanest single-stock proxy for the broader oil-price story.
With Brent now near pre-war levels and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirming Hormuz traffic is close to normal, the structural case for continued ATF cost relief looks reasonably durable — though full normalisation, per Wright's own comments, will still take "a few more weeks" as demining operations continue.
Bullion Down 5% Year-to-Date as Stronger Dollar and Rising Fed-Hike Bets Overshadow Iran De-Escalation; September Hike Odds Jump to 68%
Spot gold tumbled more than 3% Wednesday to below $4,000 an ounce — its lowest level since November 2025 — and weakened further Thursday, sliding toward its lowest levels in almost eight months. The US dollar climbed to its highest level in more than a year against a basket of major currencies, making dollar-denominated gold costlier for holders of other currencies. Markets are now pricing a roughly 68% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, sharply up from just 29% a week earlier, following new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish signalling at last week's FOMC meeting.
Bullion is now down about 5% year-to-date and nearly 20% below its January record high — a striking reversal given gold's traditional safe-haven role during geopolitical crises. The metal has struggled to retain that appeal through the Iran war itself, as the conflict's inflationary impact via higher oil prices pushed central banks toward tighter policy, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. With crude now falling and the Fed turning more hawkish, gold finds itself squeezed from both directions: the inflation hedge case weakens as oil falls, and the safe-haven case weakens as the war fades, while higher real yields make gold relatively less attractive.
📊 Gold's slide below $4,000 alongside Fed hike-odds at 68% (from 29% a week ago) suggests global markets are now trading the Fed's path more than any residual Iran risk.
Bullion is now down about 5% year-to-date and nearly 20% below its January record high — a striking reversal given gold's traditional safe-haven role during geopolitical crises. The metal has struggled to retain that appeal through the Iran war itself, as the conflict's inflationary impact via higher oil prices pushed central banks toward tighter policy, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. With crude now falling and the Fed turning more hawkish, gold finds itself squeezed from both directions: the inflation hedge case weakens as oil falls, and the safe-haven case weakens as the war fades, while higher real yields make gold relatively less attractive.
Sensex Touched +812 Points Intraday, Nifty Hit 24,262 — But Both Gave Up Most Gains as Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance and NTPC Weighed
Thursday's session followed a familiar pattern from earlier in the week: a strong open followed by fading momentum into the close. The Sensex rose as much as 812 points intraday and the Nifty 50 touched 24,262, before both benchmarks gave up the bulk of those gains as investors booked profits near the day's highs ahead of Friday's Muharram holiday. Weakness in Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance and NTPC offset the strength in autos and select financials, leaving the Sensex and Nifty to close just 0.14% higher each.
Market breadth told a more cautious story than the headline numbers suggest: on the BSE, 1,651 shares rose against 2,566 that fell, with 197 unchanged — a notably negative breadth reading for a day the headline indices closed in the green. Broader markets reflected this caution too, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.55% and Nifty Smallcap 100 down 0.47%, both underperforming the frontline indices.
📊 Weak market breadth alongside a positive headline close is a useful reminder to look past the index number on quieter, pre-holiday sessions like this one.
Market breadth told a more cautious story than the headline numbers suggest: on the BSE, 1,651 shares rose against 2,566 that fell, with 197 unchanged — a notably negative breadth reading for a day the headline indices closed in the green. Broader markets reflected this caution too, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.55% and Nifty Smallcap 100 down 0.47%, both underperforming the frontline indices.