State Finances & Federal Economy

Off-Budget Borrowing by States: How Liabilities Move Outside the Budget

CA Nikhil Gupta·May 2026·5 min readState Finances & Federal Economy

Off-Budget Borrowing by States: How Liabilities Move Outside the Budget. Understand the cash flow, ratio, public impact, warning signs, practical example and official...

How public liabilities are shifted to special entities, suppliers or utilities outside the core budget.

Current Context

For 2026–31, the Union Budget retained states’ vertical share at 41% of the divisible pool. The FY2026–27 Budget also provided ₹1.4 lakh crore of Finance Commission grants. A 3% of GSDP fiscal-deficit ceiling remains the central benchmark, subject to the applicable framework and state-specific conditions.

Measurement date: 25 June 2026. Figures should be read with the cited official series and reporting period.

Quick View

Core question

How public liabilities are shifted to special entities, suppliers or utilities outside the core budget.

Primary ratio

extra-budgetary resources

Practical lens

Follow cash, liability, execution and outcome.

Main caution

Entities with no independent revenue

How It Works

  • Off-budget borrowing often uses state agencies or public enterprises to fund schemes on the expectation of future budget support.
  • Unpaid bills, food or power subsidy arrears and special-purpose vehicles can hide the timing of fiscal stress.
  • Cash accounting records payment when made, so delayed settlement can make the current deficit look smaller.

Detailed Analysis

The central question is how public liabilities are shifted to special entities, suppliers or utilities outside the core budget. A useful answer begins with the accounting identity and then follows the cash flow. Headlines often describe a policy, liability or ratio without showing who funds it, who receives the benefit and what changes if assumptions fail.

The first mechanism is off-budget borrowing often uses state agencies or public enterprises to fund schemes on the expectation of future budget support. This is the starting point because the state budget records stocks and flows differently. A liability can remain invisible in the current cash deficit, while a payment can reduce cash without improving the underlying position.

The second mechanism is unpaid bills, food or power subsidy arrears and special-purpose vehicles can hide the timing of fiscal stress. The timing matters. Budget estimates, revised estimates and actuals can diverge; similarly, a bank’s quarter-end ratio can differ from its average position during the quarter.

The third mechanism is cash accounting records payment when made, so delayed settlement can make the current deficit look smaller. This is why readers should examine incentives and behaviour, not only compliance with a numerical ceiling.

Track extra-budgetary resources, supplier arrears, public enterprise debt, budget support, guarantees, and interest payments. Read the level, direction, five-year range, denominator and data date. A ratio can improve because the numerator strengthened or because the denominator expanded; those are not the same economic story.

The main stakeholders are taxpayers, suppliers, banks, state agencies, and future budgets. Their interests can conflict. A subsidy may help one group while raising taxes, tariffs or borrowing costs for another. A profitable lending product may help shareholders while increasing future household stress.

A strong assessment separates liquidity, solvency and service delivery. Liquidity asks whether cash is available now. Solvency asks whether assets and future revenue can cover liabilities. Service delivery asks whether the spending or lending produces the intended economic result.

The measurement date must sit beside every current number. State accounts are published with lags and revisions; bank ratios can move rapidly with growth, write-offs, market yields and funding conditions. Comparisons should use the same period and definition.

The most important warning signals are entities with no independent revenue, arrears outside accounts, guaranteed SPV debt, and repeated refinancing. One signal may be manageable. Several moving together can indicate that the apparent benefit is being financed by weaker future cash flow, rising concentration or reduced flexibility.

Finin2min’s decision rule is simple: identify the claim, find the cash source, calculate the ratio, test a downside scenario and record the evidence that would change the conclusion. This method is more useful than ranking governments or banks from one headline number.

Key Formula

Adjusted liabilities = reported debt + supported entity debt + material arrears

Use the same accounting perimeter and date for every component. State whether the ratio is a stock, flow, annual average or period-end measure.

Indicators to Track

extra-budgetary resourcesTrack the level, direction, denominator, date and peer range.
supplier arrearsTrack the level, direction, denominator, date and peer range.
public enterprise debtTrack the level, direction, denominator, date and peer range.
budget supportTrack the level, direction, denominator, date and peer range.
guaranteesTrack the level, direction, denominator, date and peer range.
interest paymentsTrack the level, direction, denominator, date and peer range.

Practical Example

A housing agency borrows to build subsidised homes while future state grants are expected to repay the debt, but the borrowing is not in the headline fiscal deficit. The conclusion should change if the funding source, beneficiary count, default rate, maturity or execution assumption changes.

Stakeholder Impact

StakeholderWhat to examine
taxpayersBenefit, cost or risk depends on the funding route, contract and time horizon.
suppliersBenefit, cost or risk depends on the funding route, contract and time horizon.
banksBenefit, cost or risk depends on the funding route, contract and time horizon.
state agenciesBenefit, cost or risk depends on the funding route, contract and time horizon.
future budgetsBenefit, cost or risk depends on the funding route, contract and time horizon.

Warning Signs

  • entities with no independent revenue
  • arrears outside accounts
  • guaranteed SPV debt
  • repeated refinancing

Decision Checklist

  1. Confirm the legal entity, reporting perimeter and accounting period.
  2. Download the official budget, audit report, RBI return or regulatory disclosure.
  3. Calculate the primary ratio using the same numerator and denominator period.
  4. Compare budget estimates with revised estimates and actuals, or quarter-end with average balance.
  5. Add guarantees, write-offs, restructuring, arrears or off-balance-sheet exposure where relevant.
  6. Run a downside scenario for revenue, interest rates, defaults, withdrawals or execution delays.
  7. Record the practical impact on citizens, borrowers, depositors or investors.

Finin2min Takeaway

Off-Budget Borrowing by States: How Liabilities Move Outside the Budget becomes useful only when the headline is converted into a funding source, measurable ratio, downside scenario and real effect on services, cash flow or financial stability.

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the first ratio to calculate?
Begin with extra-budgetary resources and then test whether the denominator and measurement date are comparable.
Can one ratio prove safety or efficiency?
No. Combine funding, cash flow, liabilities, execution and outcome indicators.
How often should the figures be reviewed?
Use the reporting frequency of the official source and reassess after a budget, audit, RBI release or material policy event.
What is the biggest interpretation mistake?
Treating an accounting improvement as a cash recovery, service improvement or permanent reduction in risk.