Markets • Macro • Commodities • Policy • Corporates • Global Indices Close • Finin2min

📊 INDIA — MARKET SNAPSHOT (Close)

• Nifty 50: 25,321 (‑0.39%)
• Sensex: 82,270 (‑0.36%)
  👉 Benchmarks declined after a 3‑day rally amid IT weakness and global uncertainty.

Narrative:
Profit‑booking, IT sell‑off, and global policy uncertainty drove a late‑week correction.

Data confidence: High (NSE + multiple market sources)

📊 Sectoral Breadth — India

🔴 Laggards

• IT (Infosys, HCLTech pressure)
• Metals (intraday volatility)
• Select heavyweights

🟢 Relative strength

• Mid/small caps mixed
• Select defensives

👉 IT losses were a key drag on indices.

Rotation signal:
Growth sectors → under pressure; selective stock‑specific buying persists.

🌍 GLOBAL MARKETS — RISK MOOD

Global macro & market drivers

Equities

• Global stocks edged higher as investors digested US policy signals.
• US equities volatile amid Fed leadership uncertainty.

Macro drivers

• Gold and silver plunged after record highs.
• Commodities volatility reflects shifting rate expectations.

👉 Global regime:
Policy uncertainty + commodity volatility = fragile risk sentiment.

📉 DERIVATIVES — INDIA (F&O / VIX / POSITIONING)

India VIX

• Elevated vs early‑Jan lows (moderate risk pricing)

Nifty Options Structure (consensus)

Resistance

• 25,500 → major call OI zone
• 25,800 → breakout zone

Support

• 25,300 → immediate support
• 25,000 → psychological + put base

👉 OI structure suggests range-bound market with downside bias near term.

Positioning Insight

• Call writing near 25,500
• Put support near 25,000
  ➡ Institutions hedged, not aggressively long.

🧮 MACRO DATA — INDIA

Flows (latest available)

• FPIs: net sellers in recent sessions
• DIIs: consistent buyers

Example recent data:

• 29 Jan: FPI ‑₹394 cr | DII +₹2,638.8 cr

Structural macro trend

• Persistent foreign selling weighed on January performance.
• Domestic flows increasingly stabilising markets.

👉 Macro takeaway:
India’s equity market is now structurally supported by domestic capital, not foreign flows.

🌍 MACRO DATA — GLOBAL

• Dollar strengthened after US policy signals.
• Safe‑haven demand reversed sharply (gold crash).

👉 Macro signal:
Markets are repricing the probability of aggressive rate cuts.

🏛 INDIA POLICY UPDATE

• Union Budget expectations dominate sentiment (tax, exports, infrastructure, MSMEs).
• Markets cautious ahead of fiscal signals.

👉 Policy implication:
Fiscal narrative is the primary domestic risk driver.

🌍 GLOBAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• US President nominated Kevin Warsh as Fed Chair → markets reassessed rate trajectory.
• Expectations of tighter monetary stance strengthened the dollar and hit gold.

👉 Global policy theme:
Shift from dovish expectations to policy uncertainty.

🪙 COMMODITIES

• Gold: ~ < $5,000/oz (sharp correction)
• Silver: heavy sell‑off after speculative rally
• Copper: also declined amid risk‑off sentiment

👉 Commodity signal:
Speculative excess unwinding across metals.

💱 FX & RATES

• USD strengthened on Fed policy expectations.
• INR under pressure amid foreign outflows (January trend).

👉 FX signal:
Dollar strength = risk‑off pressure on EM assets.

🏢 CORPORATE HIGHLIGHTS

• IT stocks led declines amid earnings concerns.
• Reliance and FMCG names weighed on monthly performance.

👉 Corporate theme:
Earnings dispersion increasing across sectors.

🗓 KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS — TODAY

• Indian markets declined after rally amid IT weakness.
• Gold and silver crashed after Fed policy shift.
• Global stocks steadied amid Fed leadership announcement.

👀 EVENTS TO WATCH

🇮🇳 India

• Union Budget announcement
• FPI flow trend
• Nifty support at 25,000

🌍 Global

• US macro data & Fed guidance
• USD index and bond yields
• Commodity volatility continuation

🧮 FININ2MIN MACRO RISK SCORE

📅 30 Jan 2026 | India + Global

📊 Composite Macro Risk Score

✅ 6.2 / 10 — Elevated Risk Regime (but not systemic)

Interpretation

• 0–3: Risk-on / stable macro
• 3–5: Normal volatility
• 5–7: ⚠️ Elevated macro risk (current regime)
• 7–10: Crisis / systemic stress

👉 Current regime = late-cycle, policy-driven volatility

🧠 FININ2MIN MACRO INSIGHT

What the score means:

✅ India risk = moderate but rising (Budget + flows)
✅ Global risk = higher than India (policy + geopolitics)
✅ Liquidity = still supportive but weakening
✅ FX + commodities = leading risk indicators

Macro regime classification:

“Risk-on with macro hedges” → transitioning to “policy-driven volatility”

🧠 FININ2MIN — INSTITUTIONAL CLOSING SUMMARY

✅ India: Market corrected as IT and global uncertainty triggered profit‑booking.
✅ Derivatives: Range-bound structure with downside risk below 25,300.
✅ Macro: Domestic liquidity stabilising markets amid persistent foreign selling.
✅ Global: Fed policy uncertainty triggered a violent reversal in precious metals.
✅ Cross‑asset: Dollar up + gold down = regime shift from “rate cuts optimism” to “policy realism”.

📉 INSTITUTIONAL MARKET REGIME ASSESSMENT

Current regime:
⚠️ Late‑cycle risk repricing

• equities fragile
• commodities volatile
• FX leading sentiment

Base-case outlook (next 3–5 sessions):

• Range: 24,900 – 25,600
• Bias: neutral to mildly bearish
• Volatility: rising

👉 Finin2min Verdict:
Markets are transitioning from “liquidity‑driven optimism” to policy‑driven realism.
Expect sharper rotations, higher volatility, and event‑driven moves around Budget and global central bank signals.

Market data and developments are based on live updates, news coverage, and financial sources as of the end of today’s session. Finin2min content is for market insight and discussion only. Not investment advice.