Markets • Macro • Commodities • Policy • Corporates • Global Indices Close • Finin2min
📊 INDIA — MARKET SNAPSHOT (Close)
- Sensex: 81,666.46 (+943.52 pts / +1.17%) — strong rebound after prior session sell-off.
- Nifty 50: 25,088.40 (+262.95 pts / +1.06%) — reclaimed above 25,000 on recovery buying.
Character:
Market snapped part of Sunday’s heavy Budget-day sell-off — which had triggered the biggest points loss on a Budget day in history — but stayed below recent highs amid continued caution.
📉 DERIVATIVES — INDIA (VIX, OI, Positioning)
India VIX:
- Remained elevated after prior day volatility and Budget shock (elevated risk pricing; exact intraday levels not published but widely reported).
Derivatives flow / positioning:
- Short-covering drove part of the rebound.
- F&O open interest and PCR still reflect caution.
👉 “Rebound was driven by short-covering and selective long build-up; derivatives metrics still reflect caution rather than a clean trend reversal.”
🧮 INDIA — MACRO DATA & MARKET DRIVERS
Union Budget 2026 follow-through
- Fiscal stance
- Economic Survey forecast ~6.8–7.2% GDP growth for FY 2026-27 (noted by commentators alongside Budget content).
- Budget maintained fiscal consolidation but slower than some had hoped; gross borrowing higher than some estimates (“fiscal discipline but limited stimulus” narrative widely reported in live blogs).
- Investor reaction
- No large relief on capital gains for FPIs: seen as a missed opportunity amid extended foreign outflows and structural rupee weakness.
- STT changes on derivatives were a key negative catalyst on Budget day.
Link to price action:
“Today’s rally was driven by relief that bleakest fears did not materialise and value buying after heavy Budget-day losses; structural concerns on fiscal path and FPI sentiment remain.”
🇮🇳 FX & RATES
- USD/INR: trading around 91.3–91.4 — modestly firmer than late-January record weak levels near 91.9+.
- Rupee remains historically weak; recovery partly driven by positioning and possible RBI support expectations.
Narrative:
“INR still in weak zone; improvement modest and partly positioning-driven rather than fundamental reversal.”
🌍 GLOBAL MARKET CONTEXT
Equities:
- Global cues were cautious, not strongly positive; U.S. and Asia markets showed mixed performance amid macro uncertainty.
Macro backdrop:
- Broader global themes — trade tensions, tariff shocks, and Fed higher-for-longer expectations — remain in play, with the IMF WEO/other forecasts highlighting moderate global growth despite headwinds.
👉 “Global cues stayed cautious (tariffs, Fed, slower fiscal consolidation abroad), so India’s rally was mainly Budget/positioning-led.”
🪙 COMMODITIES
- Gold & silver: experienced notable downward correction from prior highs.
- Crude oil: earlier pressure softened, supporting cyclical rebound.
Interpretation:
Commodity markets reflect macro repositioning rather than fresh demand fundamentals.
📊 SECTORAL LEADERS & LAGGARDS — INDIA
Leaders (2 Feb):
- Power & infrastructure (including Power Grid +7% moves)
- Adani Ports (~+5%) and Reliance Industries (~+3%) lifted large-cap cyclicals.
Broader sector tone:
- “Relief rally led by large-cap cyclicals (energy, ports, select banks/PSUs), with midcaps/smallcaps participating but still below recent highs.”
Underperformance:
- Some rate-sensitive and defensives lagged amid profit booking.
📈 FLOWS — FPI / DII
- FPI flows: structural outflows continued into January/early February — a key pressure point for FX and equities.
- DIIs: support seen, but flows remained cautious post-Budget.
🏢 CORPORATE HIGHLIGHTS
- Power Grid Corp surged after operational and results updates (noted in market coverage).
- Banking names showed mixed performance; ICICI Bank and SBI participation noted but relative underperformance vs broader index.
🗓 KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS — 2 FEB 2026
- Budget 2026 reaction continued: follow-through volatility and reversal after heavy Budget day sell-off.
- FX & commodity recalibration: strong moves amid broader risk sentiment.
👀 EVENTS TO WATCH
Domestic:
- RBI statements, OMO interventions
- FPI/DII commitment through Feb
Global:
- U.S. inflation data & Fed commentary
- Global tariff developments and trade policy shifts
🧠 CLOSING SUMMARY — INSTITUTIONAL INSIGHTS
Market character (2 Feb):
- A relief rebound from the sharp Budget-day sell-off, driven by value buying and short-covering, not yet a clean trend reversal.
Drivers:
- Budget interpretation — fiscal consolidation with modest support, no adverse shocks on policy continuity.
- Structural concerns around fiscal path, STT changes, and FPI sentiment remain.
Risk & positioning:
- Derivatives metrics continue to show caution, with elevated VIX and hedged positioning.
FX & global context:
- INR improved modestly but remains weak; global cues were cautious, making India’s rebound largely domestic policy-driven.
👉 Finin2min verdict:
Markets are digesting policy shock, trimming oversold conditions via relief buying. Structural challenges around fiscal expectations, capital flows, and FX continue to drive volatility — tactical rallies remain possible, but conviction is limited until macro clarity improves.
Market data and developments are based on live updates, news coverage, and financial sources as of the end of today’s session. Finin2min content is for market insight and discussion only. Not investment advice.
