IT rebounds, crude stays near $72 - but services demand cools.

1. US labour data cooled

US nonfarm payrolls rose only 57,000 in June versus the 110,000 Reuters poll expectation, while April-May payrolls were revised down by 74,000. Markets reduced the probability of a September Fed hike, easing pressure on rate-sensitive emerging-market and technology stocks.

2. IT got a contract-led trigger

HCLTech won a $1.14 billion contract with a major European firm. Its shares rose 5.65% at the close, helping Nifty IT gain 1.76%. The sector ended a five-week losing streak, but the weekly gain was only 0.4% - a bounce, not yet a confirmed trend reversal.

3. Oil remained India's macro cushion

Brent hovered near $72 per barrel, roughly 43% below its Iran-war peak. Lower oil supports India's inflation, current-account and corporate-margin outlook, and has helped global investors reassess an earlier India underweight.

Momentum improved, breadth stayed selective

Sensex and Nifty rose about 0.9% for the week, extending four-week gains to 4.7% and 3.9%, respectively. Eleven of sixteen major sectors gained during the week. Pharma led with a 3.1% rise, while smallcaps added 2.1% and midcaps 0.6%.

A better close, not a clean all-clear

The index rise was supported by heavyweight IT and healthcare, but banks were mixed and PSU banks fell. The day's strongest macro support - lower oil and softer Fed expectations - is real. The domestic services slowdown and the rupee's weekly loss show why earnings must now carry the next leg.

$1.14 billion contract changes the day's narrative

HCLTech's large European contract provided a company-specific catalyst that the sector had lacked. The stock closed at about Rs 1,139, up 5.65%. TCS gained 1.23%, Wipro 1.20% and Infosys 0.58%; Tech Mahindra fell 0.79%.

The distinction matters: falling Fed-hike odds supported the whole sector, while HCLTech had an additional order-book trigger.

Why caution remains

Nifty IT lost 9.6% in June and had fallen for five consecutive weeks before this week's 0.4% gain. AI disruption concerns, weak discretionary technology budgets and delayed deal ramps remain live. A one-day 1.76% rise should be read as recovery evidence - not a completed re-rating.

Demand softened

New business expanded at the slowest pace since November 2023 as domestic demand weakened. Export orders were a partial offset, growing at the fastest rate in three months.

Hiring almost stalled

Only about 1% of surveyed firms added staff. Input-cost inflation eased to a five-month low and selling-price inflation fell to a seven-month low, offering some margin relief.

Funding theme remains important

The RBI's recent foreign-currency measures are supporting bank access to overseas funding. Reuters reported that ICICI Bank is considering its first dollar bond sale in nearly nine years, after HDFC Bank and Axis Bank used the lower-cost hedging facility.

PNB's Q1 business update showed global advances up 12.85% year-on-year to Rs 12.75 lakh crore, though the stock fell about 3%, illustrating that strong volume growth does not automatically translate into a positive price reaction.

Adani Enterprises QIP

The company increased its institutional placement to Rs 15,000 crore after receiving bids of about Rs 38,000 crore - 3.8 times the original base offer. The indicative price of Rs 2,883 represented a 9.3% discount to Thursday's close. Proceeds are intended for airports, roads, data centres, green hydrogen, a PVC plant and road concession fees.

India-Japan roadmap

The summit produced more than $10 billion in fresh investment announcements and renewed the ambition of attracting 10 trillion yen over the next decade, alongside cooperation in AI, defence, energy resilience and next-generation mobility.

Power-equipment competition

India allowed four Chinese-linked manufacturers with local factories to bid for critical government power projects for two years. The change supports transmission capacity but increases competitive pressure; Hitachi Energy, GE Vernova T&D India and peers fell sharply.

Foreign-flow direction

FII selling has tapered materially from earlier in the year, while US-listed India-focused ETFs recorded their first positive weekly inflow in more than a month in the prior week. The latest confirmed provisional cash-market number cited before Friday was a roughly Rs 312 crore FII net sale on 2 July.

Institutional demand signal

Adani Enterprises' QIP drew around Rs 38,000 crore of bids against a Rs 10,000 crore original base offer. That is a clear primary-market measure of institutional demand, although it should not be treated as a proxy for broad-market FII cash flows.

Derivatives integrity rule

Same-day PCR, max-pain and participant-wise F&O figures are not shown because a timestamped official end-of-day snapshot was not reproducible at publication cut-off. Unofficial aggregator estimates were not substituted.

IT services

Can large deal wins convert into revenue despite delayed discretionary spending? Watch constant-currency growth, deal ramp-ups, utilisation, AI-led productivity and commentary on North American budgets.

Banks and NBFCs

Focus on deposit growth, cost of funds, net-interest margins, unsecured-credit stress, asset quality and whether RBI foreign-currency measures improve funding flexibility.

Oil-sensitive sectors

Airlines, autos, logistics, paints and consumer companies should disclose how much of the war-era energy shock hit Q1 margins and how quickly lower crude can reverse it.

Why Korea led

KOSPI's 5.44% rebound followed the prior week's severe AI-valuation sell-off. India's move was steadier and more diversified, with IT, realty and pharma leading but PSU banks and autos lagging.

US holiday effect

US cash equity markets were closed Friday for the Independence Day observance. Thursday's softer jobs data had already lifted Wall Street and reduced near-term Fed-hike expectations before Asian markets opened.

1. Nifty 24,200 / 24,500

Holding the breakout zone would keep the short-term structure constructive; 24,500 is the first widely watched upside test.

2. IT follow-through

Watch whether HCLTech-led buying spreads to Infosys, TCS and Wipro or fades after a two-day rebound.

3. Services demand

Track whether the weak PMI changes earnings expectations for consumer, staffing and domestic-service businesses.

4. Rupee and merchant flows

USD/INR near 95.20 remains a live imported-inflation and foreign-return variable.

5. Q1 business updates

Early sales, deposit, credit and volume disclosures will shape earnings revisions before full results.

6. Primary market

Kusumgar opens on 8 July; allocation details from Adani's institutional placement will remain in focus.

7. Fed minutes

The next US policy communication will show whether the softer jobs report changes policymakers' inflation-first stance.

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