Finin2min Daily Brief | 25 June 2026

📅 Thursday, June 25, 2026 · Day Snapshot

Crude Nears Pre-War Levels as Markets Extend Gains for a Second Day — But Profit-Booking Trims Early Highs Ahead of the Long Weekend

Thursday started strong and ended modestly, as Indian benchmarks rose for a second straight session but gave up most of their intraday gains. The Sensex touched an intraday high of 812 points above Wednesday's close and the Nifty 50 hit 24,262, before profit-booking ahead of Friday's Muharram holiday pulled both back. The Sensex finally settled 109.25 points higher (+0.14%) at 77,100.47, and the Nifty 50 added 34.35 points (+0.14%) to close at 24,056 — taking the two-session gain to 1.18% and 0.97% respectively. The standout story was crude: Brent crude for August settlement fell 1.45% to $72.67 a barrel, down more than 8% over the week and now sitting close to pre-conflict, pre-war levels, as stranded tankers resumed normal movement through the Strait of Hormuz. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright said flows through the Strait were close to pre-war levels, with at least 20 million barrels having exited in the prior 24 hours. Nine of 15 major NSE sectoral gauges closed higher, led by Nifty Auto's 2.25% surge as falling fuel costs lifted the outlook for vehicle demand — Samvardhana Motherson (+4.97%), TVS Motor (+3.94%), Ashok Leyland (+3.93%) and Mahindra & Mahindra (+3.87%) all rallied. IT, metal, pharma, consumer durables and oil & gas faced selling pressure. Broader markets underperformed, with Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.55% and Nifty Smallcap 100 down 0.47%. India VIX fell a further 2.5% to 13.05, continuing its decline from earlier in the week. Markets will remain closed Friday for Muharram and reopen Monday, June 29.

Sensex +109 · Nifty closes above 24,050 Brent ~$72.7 · near pre-war level Nifty Auto +2.25% · M&M, TVS lead IT, metal, pharma lag India VIX falls to 13.05 Markets shut Friday for Muharram

🛢️ The Big Story — Crude Nears Pre-War Levels

Brent Crude $72.67 · Down 8%+ This Week · Stranded Tankers Resume Hormuz Transit

Crude's Decline Has Surprised Even Seasoned Traders With Its Pace — The Market Is Pricing a Faster Return of Middle East Barrels Than Anticipated Just Two Weeks Ago

"The market is pricing in a much faster return of Middle Eastern barrels than most had anticipated just a fortnight ago."
— Energy Market Analyst, cited by HDFC SKY

Brent / WTI Close

Brent: $72.67/bbl (−1.45%) · WTI: ~$70.07/bbl (−0.38%) — both near pre-conflict levels

Hormuz Normalisation

US Energy Secretary Chris Wright: flows close to pre-war levels, 20M+ barrels exited the Strait in the prior 24 hours

Weekly Decline

Crude has lost more than 8% in one week, as optimism builds around a near-term end to the broader conflict

India Read-Through

Auto, aviation and logistics stocks rallying directly on lower fuel-cost expectations; petrol/diesel relief still pending full pass-through

🇺🇸 Washington — The War's Political Bill Comes Due

White House Supplemental Request · $87.6 Billion · Submitted to Congress Wednesday

Trump Administration Seeks $67 Billion to Replenish Pentagon Stocks After the Iran War, a Day After the Senate Passed a War Powers Resolution

The White House on Wednesday formally requested $87.6 billion in supplemental funding from Congress, with the bulk — about $67 billion — earmarked to replenish Defense Department stocks depleted during the US-led attack on Iran (referred to in official correspondence as "Operation Epic Fury"), including $21 billion for munitions and $17.3 billion for operational costs. The request arrived just hours after President Trump reportedly engaged in a heated exchange with a Republican senator during a private lunch, over GOP votes to approve a war powers resolution intended to limit further military action — a measure that passed the Senate on Tuesday with four Republicans joining Democrats.

The request faces a difficult path: Senate Appropriations Committee's top Democrat, Patty Murray, said she would not "rubber-stamp tens of billions more for this disastrous war of choice," and other Senate Democrats including Chris Murphy and Mazie Hirono signalled the package "seems designed not to pass." With Republicans holding slim majorities, the bill will need Democratic votes — putting the funding's fate, and the broader question of how the Iran conflict's costs get settled, squarely into election-year politics ahead of the 2026 midterms. For markets, this is a slow-burning fiscal and political risk rather than an immediate catalyst — but it underscores that the war's resolution on the battlefield doesn't end its economic and political tail.

"After dragging America into a reckless war, he now wants Congress to hand him tens of billions more to paper over the damage — while families are still paying higher prices."
— Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer

Total Request

$87.6B

Defense Share

$67.1B

Path in Congress

Uncertain

Lead Story

🛢️ The War Premium Is Gone — But Its Bills Are Just Arriving

Crude's Round-Trip Back to Pre-War Levels Is the Cleanest Resolution of This Story Yet — Even as Washington's Political and Fiscal Reckoning Is Only Beginning

It's worth pausing on what actually happened to oil this week, because it's a genuinely unusual outcome: a four-month war that, at its peak, threatened to close one of the world's most important shipping chokepoints, has now fully round-tripped in crude pricing terms. Brent at $72.67 is, per multiple traders quoted this week, essentially back to where it stood before the conflict began in late February — a decline that has "surprised traders" with its pace, as the market prices in a faster return of Middle Eastern barrels than almost anyone expected a fortnight ago.

For India, this is unambiguously good news, and today's session showed it cleanly: Nifty Auto's 2.25% rally, led by Mahindra & Mahindra, TVS Motor and Ashok Leyland, and InterGlobe Aviation's continued outperformance (up roughly 5% to ₹5,462) are the market pricing in lower fuel costs flowing through to consumer demand and corporate margins. The fact that the broader Sensex and Nifty gains were modest (+0.14% each) while these specific crude-sensitive pockets rallied sharply tells you this was a targeted, mechanism-driven move rather than a broad risk-on day — consistent with profit-booking trimming the early-session highs ahead of Friday's holiday.

The less comfortable part of today's news is what's happening in Washington. A war can end on the battlefield and in oil markets while still generating a long political and fiscal tail. The White House's $87.6 billion supplemental request — most of it to replenish Pentagon stocks — is now caught in exactly the kind of partisan gridlock that could keep this story in headlines for months, even as the underlying market-relevant facts (Hormuz reopened, oil cheap, ceasefire holding) have already been digested by markets. It's a reminder that "the war is over" and "the war's costs are settled" are two very different claims.

Layered on top: gold's crash below $4,000 — its lowest since November — is the clearest signal yet that markets have moved past treating Iran-related risk as a reason to hold safe havens, and are now focused almost entirely on the Fed's rate path. With September hike odds at 68% (up from 29% a week ago), and today's critical US PCE inflation print due after Indian markets closed, the rest of this week's global market story is arguably more about the Fed than about Iran.

📊 Crude near pre-war levels is the cleanest "this story is over" signal yet — but gold's crash and Washington's funding fight show two new storylines (Fed policy, war-cost politics) are already taking its place.

Today's Key Stories

01🚗 Nifty Auto Surges 2.25% — M&M, TVS, Ashok Leyland Lead

Falling Crude Lifts the Entire Auto Complex; Samvardhana Motherson Tops Gainers at +4.97% as Fuel-Cost Relief Improves Demand Outlook

The Nifty Auto index added 2.25% to close at 26,977.75, recovering from a 0.77% decline over the previous two sessions. Samvardhana Motherson International led with a 4.97% gain, followed by TVS Motor Company (+3.94%), Ashok Leyland (+3.93%), Mahindra & Mahindra (+3.87%), Maruti Suzuki (+3.79%), Uno Minda (+3.04%), Tata Motors Passenger Vehicles (+1.13%), Bharat Forge (+1.08%) and Bajaj Auto (+1.02%). The rally tracks directly to crude's continued slide toward pre-war levels, which improves the near-term cost outlook for both vehicle manufacturers and the consumers who buy from them.

Separately, Tata Motors Commercial Vehicles shares rose as much as 5.73% to ₹435 after CEO Girish Wagh offered an optimistic outlook, telling PTI that while the West Asia war's diesel price hike would have a short-term impact on domestic commercial vehicle demand (expected to grow in single digits this fiscal), India's broader macroeconomic growth would help the segment overcome it in the long term.

📊 Auto's 2.25% single-day gain, against a flat headline index, is the clearest sector-specific expression of the crude-normalisation trade this week.

02✈️ InterGlobe Aviation Extends Rally — Up ~5% to ₹5,462

IndiGo Parent Remains the Nifty's Standout Performer for a Second Consecutive Session as Falling Aviation Turbine Fuel Costs Boost the Outlook

InterGlobe Aviation was again the Nifty 50's top gainer Thursday, rising nearly 5% to close at ₹5,462, continuing Wednesday's 4.77% advance. The stock's back-to-back outperformance is the most direct, sustained read-through of the crude-price story in Indian equities this week — aviation turbine fuel costs are highly sensitive to crude, and falling fuel costs flow almost immediately into airline margin expectations.

With Brent now near pre-war levels and US Energy Secretary Chris Wright confirming Hormuz traffic is close to normal, the structural case for continued ATF cost relief looks reasonably durable — though full normalisation, per Wright's own comments, will still take "a few more weeks" as demining operations continue.

📊 Two consecutive sessions as the Nifty's top gainer makes InterGlobe Aviation this week's cleanest single-stock proxy for the broader oil-price story.

Spot gold tumbled more than 3% Wednesday to below $4,000 an ounce — its lowest level since November 2025 — and weakened further Thursday, sliding toward its lowest levels in almost eight months. The US dollar climbed to its highest level in more than a year against a basket of major currencies, making dollar-denominated gold costlier for holders of other currencies. Markets are now pricing a roughly 68% probability of a Fed rate hike in September, sharply up from just 29% a week earlier, following new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish signalling at last week's FOMC meeting.

Bullion is now down about 5% year-to-date and nearly 20% below its January record high — a striking reversal given gold's traditional safe-haven role during geopolitical crises. The metal has struggled to retain that appeal through the Iran war itself, as the conflict's inflationary impact via higher oil prices pushed central banks toward tighter policy, raising the opportunity cost of holding a non-yielding asset. With crude now falling and the Fed turning more hawkish, gold finds itself squeezed from both directions: the inflation hedge case weakens as oil falls, and the safe-haven case weakens as the war fades, while higher real yields make gold relatively less attractive.

Thursday's session followed a familiar pattern from earlier in the week: a strong open followed by fading momentum into the close. The Sensex rose as much as 812 points intraday and the Nifty 50 touched 24,262, before both benchmarks gave up the bulk of those gains as investors booked profits near the day's highs ahead of Friday's Muharram holiday. Weakness in Bharti Airtel, Infosys, Power Grid, Bajaj Finance and NTPC offset the strength in autos and select financials, leaving the Sensex and Nifty to close just 0.14% higher each.

Market breadth told a more cautious story than the headline numbers suggest: on the BSE, 1,651 shares rose against 2,566 that fell, with 197 unchanged — a notably negative breadth reading for a day the headline indices closed in the green. Broader markets reflected this caution too, with the Nifty Midcap 100 down 0.55% and Nifty Smallcap 100 down 0.47%, both underperforming the frontline indices.

Overnight on Wall Street, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.43% to 25,476.64 as Micron Technology shares fell ahead of the chipmaker's earnings release, continuing the valuation-anxiety theme that has weighed on global tech since Tuesday's KOSPI-triggered sell-off. The S&P 500 declined 0.10% to 7,358.22, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 182.06 points (+0.35%) to 51,848.90 — a mixed close that reflects the ongoing tension between tech-sector caution and broader market resilience.

European stocks, meanwhile, traded higher Thursday as the sharp decline in crude oil toward pre-conflict levels eased inflation concerns and prompted investors to scale back expectations of further European Central Bank tightening — a clean illustration of how the same crude-price story that's lifting Indian autos and aviation is also reshaping rate-policy expectations well beyond India.

Nifty50 Top Movers · June 25 · Upstox / Business Standard Confirmed

InterGlobe Aviation

~+5% · ₹5,462 · top Nifty gainer

~+5% ▲

Mahindra & Mahindra

+2.4% · ₹3,139 · auto rally leader

+2.4% ▲

Maruti Suzuki

+3.79% · crude-cost relief

+3.79% ▲

ICICI Bank

Among the day's stronger large caps

Gainer ▲

Samvardhana Motherson

+4.97% · auto ancillary leader

+4.97% ▲

Bharti Airtel · NTPC

Among today's top losers

Losers ▼

Infosys

−0.53% · ₹1,051 · IT weakness

−0.53% ▼

Power Grid · Bajaj Finance

Weighed on index despite auto strength

Losers ▼

Sectoral Performance · June 25 · Business Standard Confirmed

🚗 Auto

+2.25% · top sectoral gainer

+2.25% ▲

🛍️ FMCG

+0.7% · falling input costs

Up ▲

🏘️ Realty

+0.3% · continued participation

Up ▲

💻 IT

Selling pressure persists

Down ▼

⚙️ Metal · 💊 Pharma

Both faced selling pressure

Down ▼

🛢️ Oil & Gas · 🛋️ Consumer Durables

Weighed by falling crude / profit-booking

Down ▼

Business & Policy Briefs · June 25

🌍 Markets & Macro

US PCE Inflation Data Due Today — The Bureau of Economic Analysis releases May's core PCE price index — the Fed's preferred inflation gauge — alongside the final Q1 GDP revision and initial jobless claims later Thursday (US time, after Indian markets closed). Economists at FactSet had forecast core PCE rising to 3.3-3.45% year-over-year; a hot print would reinforce the already-elevated Fed hike odds.

Markets Closed Friday for Muharram — NSE and BSE will remain shut Friday, June 26, on account of Muharram, with trading resuming Monday, June 29. Today's profit-booking into the close is partly attributable to investors squaring positions ahead of the long weekend.

India-US Trade Deal Optimism Adds Support — Religare Broking's Ajit Mishra noted positive developments regarding a potential US-India trade deal provided additional support to sentiment Thursday, alongside the rebound in Asian markets following Tuesday's sharp KOSPI-led decline.

Monsoon Resumes Advance Across India — The southwest monsoon resumed its advance across the country, improving investor sentiment, according to Siddhartha Khemka, Head of Research at Motilal Oswal Financial Services — a seasonal but meaningful tailwind for rural consumption and agri-linked stocks.

🏭 Corporate & Sector Notes

Sterlite Technologies Hits Upper Circuit on QIP Launch — Sterlite Technologies shares hit a 5% upper circuit after the company announced the launch of its qualified institutional placement (QIP) issue, with the floor price fixed at ₹613.69 per share.

IRFC Retail OFS Oversubscribed 1.86x on Day 1 — The government's offer-for-sale in Indian Railway Finance Corporation was oversubscribed 1.86 times on its first day, prompting the government to exercise the green-shoe (oversubscription) option.

Jupiter Wagons Secures ₹264 Crore in Orders — Jupiter Wagons fell 1.77% despite securing two major orders worth a combined ₹264.32 crore from JSW (South) Rail Logistics and the Central Warehousing Corporation — a reminder that even positive order-book news didn't always translate to stock gains on a choppy, breadth-negative session.

Electrosteel Castings Resumes Blast Furnace Production — The company announced the resumption of its Mini Blast Furnace production facility at Khardah Works, West Bengal, effective June 24 — though the stock still fell 1.72% amid the broader metal-sector weakness.

Editor's Note · Thursday Evening

When the War Ends in the Market Before It Ends in Washington

There's a clean, almost satisfying symmetry to crude prices fully round-tripping back to where they started before this war began. Markets, in their mechanical way, have now priced the entire conflict — the spike, the peak, and the unwind — and landed back close to neutral. That's a genuinely good outcome for India's energy-import bill, and today's auto and aviation rallies are the clearest proof that the trade is real, not theoretical.

What today's news from Washington complicates is the idea that "the war is over" is a single, clean fact rather than several separate facts that resolve on different timelines. The battlefield conflict may be winding down. The diplomatic framework may be holding. But the fiscal bill — $87.6 billion, mostly to replenish weapons stocks — is only now arriving in Congress, and the political fight over who pays it and whether it should be paid at all is just beginning. None of that changes oil prices today. It could very plausibly become a slow-burning story that resurfaces around the 2026 midterms.

The more immediately market-relevant divergence is between crude (falling, Iran-driven) and gold (also falling, but Fed-driven). Six months ago these two might have moved together on war-risk sentiment. Today they're moving for completely different reasons — gold's decline is overwhelmingly about Fed Chair Warsh's hawkish signalling and a dollar at 13-month highs, not about Iran at all. That's a useful signal that the market's attention is already rotating away from the war story and toward the next one: whether the Fed actually hikes in September.

Enjoy the long weekend — markets are shut Friday for Muharram. The PCE print landing in the US after Indian markets close means Monday's open will be the first chance to see how India reacts to whatever that number says.

Next Session's Watch · Monday June 29

🥇 US PCE Print Reaction

Released After Indian Markets Closed

Today's core PCE data lands too late for Indian markets to react Thursday. Monday's open will be the first chance to see how India responds — a hot print could reinforce hawkish Fed bets and pressure gold/rate-sensitive sectors further.

🛢️ Crude's Next Leg

Does Brent Test Sub-$70?

With Brent already near pre-war levels and Hormuz traffic normalising further, watch whether continued supply recovery pushes crude even lower over the long weekend.

🇺🇸 War Funding Fight

Congress's Response to the $87.6B Request

With Democrats signalling resistance and the bill needing bipartisan support, watch for any procedural developments or counter-proposals over the coming days that could clarify the funding's path.

📊 Market Breadth Check

Does the Negative Breadth Resolve?

Thursday's negative breadth (1,651 advances vs 2,566 declines on BSE) despite a positive headline close is worth watching on Monday — a continuation of weak breadth would be a more cautious signal than the index numbers suggest.

🚗 Auto Sector Follow-Through

Does the Crude-Driven Rally Extend?

Nifty Auto's 2.25% gain was today's standout sectoral move. Whether this proves a durable re-rating on lower fuel costs or a one-day bounce will become clearer as the week progresses.

🔬 Micron Earnings Read-Through

Global Tech Valuation Anxiety Continues

Micron's results, released after Wednesday's US close, will shape how global tech — and by extension, Indian IT sentiment — trades into next week, against the backdrop of this week's broader AI-valuation jitters.

Market Pulse · Close

Sensex

77,100

▲ +109 pts · +0.14%

Nifty 50

24,056

▲ +34 pts · +0.14%

India VIX

13.05

▼ −2.5%

Brent Crude

$72.67

▼ −1.45% · near pre-war level

Gold (Spot)

~$3,988

▼ Below $4,000 · 8-month low

Nifty Auto

26,978

▲ +2.25%

Verified Data Table · June 25, 2026

Asset / Event	Level / Status	Move / Detail	Signal
INDICES · Business Standard / Upstox Confirmed — June 25 Provisional Close
SensexBSE	77,100.47	▲ +109.25 pts · +0.14%	Intraday high: +812 pts
Nifty 50NSE	24,056.00	▲ +34.35 pts · +0.14%	Intraday high: 24,262
Two-Session GainWed + Thu combined	—	Sensex +1.18% / Nifty +0.97%	Erasing Tuesday's sell-off
Market BreadthBSE	1,651 adv. / 2,566 dec.	Negative breadth	197 unchanged
BSE Mid-Cap / Small-CapBSE	—	+0.30% / −0.11%	Mixed broader markets
India VIXFear gauge	13.05	▼ −2.50%	Continued decline this week
SECTOR & STOCK MOVES · Confirmed June 25
Nifty AutoNSE	26,977.75	▲ +2.25%	Top sectoral gainer
Samvardhana MothersonAuto ancillary	—	▲ +4.97%	Top auto-pack gainer
InterGlobe AviationTop Nifty gainer, 2nd day	₹5,462	▲ ~+5%	Falling ATF cost tailwind
Tata Motors Commercial VehiclesCV segment	₹435	▲ +5.73%	CEO Girish Wagh's optimistic outlook
COMMODITIES & MACRO · Trading Economics / Reuters Confirmed
Brent CrudeAugust settlement	$72.67/bbl	▼ −1.45% (−$1.07)	Near pre-war level; −8%+ this week
WTI CrudeThursday trade	~$70.07/bbl	▼ −0.38%	Also near pre-war levels
Spot GoldGlobal	~$3,988/oz	▼ Below $4,000	Lowest since November 2025
Fed September Hike OddsMarket-implied	68%	▲ from 29% a week ago	US PCE data due today (US time)
KEY UPCOMING CALENDAR
US May PCE / Core PCEBEA release	Thu, 8:30 AM EDT	After IST market close	Forecast: Core PCE ~3.3-3.45% YoY
NSE/BSE HolidayMuharram	Friday, June 26	Markets closed	Trading resumes Monday, June 29