01🏦 Banking
Bank Nifty Surges 471 Points in Afternoon — The Session's Surprise Hero
In one of the sharpest intraday sector divergences of the year, Bank Nifty recovered strongly in afternoon trade to close at 54,186 — up 471 points despite the broader market closing in the red. Value buyers stepped in aggressively as banking heavyweights sold off at levels deemed excessive relative to their fundamentals. The move is telling: financial sector participants are front-running a benign RBI outcome on Friday. Immediate support for Bank Nifty sits at 53,900; immediate resistance at 54,300. If the RBI delivers a hold with neutral language on Friday, Bank Nifty could test 55,000 by end of next week.
Bank Nifty bullish candle with strong lower wick → buyers at lows
02🌐 Geopolitics & Crude
IT Sector Snaps 4-Session Rally — Every Constituent Red as Global Risk-Off Takes Over
The Nifty IT index snapped its impressive four-session winning streak, with every single constituent — including TCS, Infosys, HCL Tech, Wipro, and Tech Mahindra — closing in the red. The sector had rallied 4%+ in just the previous four sessions, making it vulnerable to a risk-off shock. The Gulf escalation acted as the catalyst. That said, the structural thesis — rupee weakness as a tailwind for IT earnings, plus sustained global AI demand — remains intact. The reversal looks tactical rather than structural. A bounce back is likely if Friday's RBI is neutral-toned.
One-day pullback after 4-session 4%+ rally — watch for reversal Friday
03🤝 Trade Deal
India-US Trade Deal: 99% Done — But the Final 1% Includes USTR's Section 301 Complications
US Ambassador Sergio Gor declared the deal "99% there" and said remaining issues were being worked through "over the next several weeks." However, a significant wrinkle emerged: the USTR released a Section 301 report identifying India among 54 countries alleged to have inadequate forced-labour-related trade prohibitions, and proposed additional 12.5% tariffs. Indian sources acknowledged this will need to be resolved alongside the interim Bilateral Trade Agreement. The US delegation led by Assistant USTR Brendan Lynch is in New Delhi until June 4, meeting Commerce Minister Piyush Goyal. The deal framework was agreed in February — but finalisation is now clearly sliding beyond the original June 4 deadline.
Section 301 tariff threat = new complication in final 1%
04📊 Macro Data
May GST Collections: ₹1.94 Lakh Crore — Adjusted Growth at 9%, Economy Remains Resilient
India's GST revenues for May 2026 came in at ₹1.94 lakh crore — a headline 3.2% YoY increase, but an adjusted 9% growth once a one-time ₹10,000 crore telecom spectrum payment that inflated May 2025's base is stripped out. Net GST revenue after refunds stood at ₹1.67 lakh crore, with adjusted net growth at 10.1%. CGST: ₹37,397 crore. SGST: ₹45,143 crore. IGST: ₹51,990 crore. Import-related collections were buoyant. Key caveat: Delhi (−17%), Tamil Nadu (−15%), Assam (−13%) and Rajasthan (−11%) saw state-level YoY declines. The numbers reflect April economic activity — which was already mid-Iran-war. A resilient read for the RBI as it assesses growth durability.
Underlying GST growth: 9% adjusted · India tax engine robust
05📈 IPO Watch
CMR Green Technologies IPO — Fully Subscribed on Day 1; Bidding Closes June 5
CMR Green Technologies' IPO achieved full subscription on its very first day of share sale, with healthy retail and HNI participation signalling continued appetite for quality primary market offerings despite secondary market volatility. The IPO closes on June 5 — the same day as the RBI's policy decision, creating a dual event risk for investors tracking both primary and secondary markets. Watch for grey market premium movements overnight as crude and RBI sentiment evolve.
IPO closes June 5 — same day as RBI decision · Monitor GMP
06💰 FY26 GDP
India FY26 GDP Final: 7.6% — Manufacturing at Decade High, FY27 Projected at 6.9%
India's provisional FY26 GDP landed at 7.6% — revised upward from the initial 7.4% estimate, and the sharpest expansion since FY22. Manufacturing posted double-digit growth for a fifth straight quarter. Services rose to a seven-quarter high of 9.5% in Q3. Private expenditure accelerated to 7.7%. The RBI has projected FY27 GDP at 6.9%, with the West Asia conflict flagged as the primary downside risk. The 7.6% FY26 outturn strengthens the RBI's argument to keep rates on hold — the economy does not need emergency support. But the FY27 deceleration to 6.9% gives the RBI room to soften its tone on the growth outlook.
FY26: 7.6% · FY25: 7.1% · Fastest since FY22 · Positive RBI input