🗓️ Period: 16 Feb’26 → 22 Feb’26
(Markets • Macro • Commodities • Policy • Global • Strategy • Finin2min)
🧭 FININ2MIN MARKET REGIME SNAPSHOT
Market Regime: Stability with positioning bias
FMRS™: 6.0 / 10
👉 Weekly takeaway
Markets absorbed uncertainty without correcting.
Stronger domestic growth + softer global yields shifted positioning from hedging → accumulation.
This was a confidence-building week before a directional move.
📊 FININ2MIN QUANT SCORECARD
Risk Sentiment: 6.2 / 10 ↑
Liquidity: 5.8 / 10 →
Trend Strength — India: 6.0 / 10 ↑
Trend Strength — Global: 6.4 / 10 ↑
Macro Stress: 4.3 / 10 ↓
Interpretation: Early trend formation phase.
📊 WEEKLY CLOSING RATES & VARIANCE
🇮🇳 INDIA EQUITY INDICES
| Index | Weekly Close | WoW | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | 25,571.25 | Mild gain | 🔼 | Accumulation |
| Sensex | 82,814.71 | Mild gain | 🔼 | Stability |
| Weekly Range | 25,372 – 25,885 | — | ➖ | Consolidation |
👉 Institutions accumulating rather than chasing highs
🌍 GLOBAL EQUITIES
| Index | Weekly Bias | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Positive | Soft-landing pricing |
| Nasdaq | Positive | Growth leadership |
| Dow | Mild | Defensive balance |
🪙 COMMODITIES
🟡 GOLD
| Level | Price |
|---|---|
| Spot | ~$5,080–5,100/oz |
| Weekly Move | ≈ +1.5–2.0% |
Macro hedge demand + softer yields
⚪ SILVER
| From | To | Move |
|---|---|---|
| ~$77.3 | ~$84.6 | ≈ +9% WoW |
Industrial optimism returning
🛢️ CRUDE
Stable — growth expectations improving, no supply shock
💱 FX & YIELDS
| Asset | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| Dollar | Mildly soft | Supports risk assets |
| Bond yields | Stable-lower | Valuation support |
| INR | Stable | Flow comfort |
🧠 MACRO & POLICY — WHAT MOVED MARKETS
🇮🇳 India — Growth & Policy Anchors
RBI minutes confirmed steady stance:
- Repo unchanged (~5.25%)
- FY26 growth ~7.4%
- Inflation gradually toward 4%
- 10Y G-Sec ~6.67% (no bond stress)
Domestic data and flows this week reconfirmed India as the fastest-growing major economy with supportive policy.
High-Frequency Data Strength
- HSBC Composite PMI ~59+ → strong expansion
- Broad-based manufacturing + services growth
🇮🇳 India — Flows Confirm the Story
- FPIs ~₹33,000+ crore early Feb inflow
- Largest since Apr 2025
- Concentrated in financials, capital goods, oil & gas
👉 Confirms accumulation in cyclicals, not speculative rally
🌏 Global Growth & Trade Policy
Trade policy discussions remained an overhang but without escalation.
Global growth outlook modestly improved → recession fears fading.
Earlier-Feb US CPI downside surprise reinforced disinflation narrative and helped anchor yields.
🇺🇸 US Rates & Fed Path
- Economy slowing but healthy
- Rate cuts delayed, not cancelled
- Yields stable → valuation support
This explains:
- Gold above $5,000
- Stable equities
- No risk-off shock
🇪🇺 Europe
Manufacturing stabilising → supportive global backdrop
🇮🇳 Policy — External Borrowing Framework
RBI eased external borrowing norms
Impact:
- Easier corporate funding
- Supports capex cycle
- Reinforces industrial leadership
📉 FLOWS & POSITIONING
- FIIs selective buyers
- DIIs steady support
- Volatility compression
Sector leadership:
🟢 Financials, Industrials, Capex
🟡 IT selective
🔴 Momentum cooling
🔮 FININ2MIN OUTLOOK
Base (55%): Sideways → upward bias
Bull (30%): Liquidity breakout
Risk (15%): Yield spike / trade escalation
🧠 FININ2MIN STRATEGY SIGNAL
➡️ Accumulate on dips
➡️ Financials & industrials leadership
➡️ Avoid crowded trades
➡️ Gold hedge, not chase
🧭 FININ2MIN BOTTOM LINE
The market didn’t rally because it was uncertain.
It didn’t fall because macro was strong.
Positioning phase precedes trend — and we are in that phase now.
Finin2min — market insight only, not investment advice.
