🗓️ Period: 9 Feb’26 → 15 Feb’26
(Markets • Macro • Commodities • Policy • Global • Strategy • Finin2min)
🧭 FININ2MIN MARKET REGIME SNAPSHOT
Market Regime: Range-bound Distribution → Selective Rotation
Finin2min Market Regime Score (FMRS™): 4.8 / 10 ↓
👉 Weekly takeaway
The market failed to extend last week’s rebound and instead showed index stability hiding internal weakness:
- Benchmarks ended lower
- Banks relatively stable
- IT sharply sold off
- Breadth extremely weak
- Mid & small caps corrected
This was a sell-on-rise week masked by index stability — positioning adjustment, not bullish continuation.
📊 FININ2MIN QUANT SCORECARD (FQSM™)
| Metric | Score | Interpretation | Market implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Sentiment Index | 4.6 / 10 ↓ | Risk appetite fading | Sell on rise |
| Liquidity Score | 4.7 / 10 → | Still tight | No broad rally |
| Trend Strength – India | 4.9 / 10 ↓ | Failed breakout | Range forming |
| Trend Strength – Global | 6.1 / 10 ↑ | Global stable | India lagging |
| Macro Stress Indicator | 6.5 / 10 ↑ | Volatility returning | Wider swings ahead |
📊 WEEK-TO-WEEK MARKET COMPARISON
🇮🇳 INDIA EQUITIES — INDICES
| Index | 8 Feb Close | 15 Feb Close | WoW Change | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | ~25,694 | 25,471 | 🔻 ~-0.9% | Follow-through failed |
| Sensex | ~83,580 | 82,627 | 🔻 ~-1.1% | Large caps corrected |
| Bank Nifty | ~60,100 | ~60,186 | ➖ Flat | Holding market |
| Midcap 100 | ~59,503 | ~58,600–58,800 | 🔻 ~-1.5% | Participation weak |
| Smallcap 100 | ~17,100 | ~16,800–16,900 | 🔻 ~-1.5–2% | Risk appetite cooled |
👉 Message: Rally stalled → distribution started
🏭 INDIA — SECTORAL INDICES (Trend)
| Sector | WoW Direction | Market Read |
|---|---|---|
| IT | 🔻 Sharp fall | Yield pressure |
| Metals | 🔻 | Global growth doubts |
| FMCG | 🔻 | Valuation compression |
| Private Banks | ➖/🔻 | Profit booking |
| PSU Banks | 🔼 | Relative outperformance |
| Auto | 🔼 | Domestic demand theme |
| Capital Goods / Defence | 🔼 | Capex accumulation |
👉 Rotation: Global sectors → Domestic cyclicals
🪙 COMMODITIES
| Asset | 8 Feb | 15 Feb | WoW | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (INR/10g) | ~₹1.56L | ~₹1.60–1.63L | 🔼 | Defensive demand |
| Silver (MCX/kg) | ~₹2.50L | ~₹2.45–2.60L | ➖ Volatile | Stress stabilising |
| Brent Oil | ~$70–71 | ~$68–72 | ➖ | Inflation uncertainty |
| Metal | 8 Feb | 15 Feb | WoW Move | % Move | Signal |
|---|
| Gold | ~4,890 | 5,041 | 🔼 +150 | ~+3.0% | Strong hedge demand |
| Silver | ~74.8 | 77.3 | 🔼 +2.5 | ~+3.3% | Recovery from liquidation |
Interpretation (Important)
- Gold rising with yields → geopolitical + policy uncertainty hedge
- Silver rising with gold (not alone) → not risk-on, but stress easing
- Metals confirming: markets defensive, not bearish panic
👉 Signal:
Capital moved to safety assets while equities distributed — classic late-cycle behaviour
💱 FX & RATES
| Asset | 8 Feb | 15 Feb | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ~90.7 | ~90.5–90.7 | ➖ | Stable currency |
| India 10Y | ~6.71% | ~6.7% | ➖ | No easing pricing |
| US 10Y | ~4.05% | ~4.15% | 🔼 | Higher-for-longer |
🧠 WEEK-TO-WEEK INTERPRETATION
Week 1 (ending 8 Feb): Stabilisation rally
Week 2 (ending 15 Feb): Distribution & rotation
Markets did not reverse trend —
they absorbed supply after rebound
Key change:
➡️ Liquidity didn’t leave
➡️ But risk appetite narrowed
Finin2min takeaway:
Market shifted from recovery → positioning adjustment
🏭 SECTOR ROTATION — THE REAL STORY
Relatively Strong
- Autos
- PSU Banks
- Defence & capex
- Select domestic cyclicals
Weak
- IT (major drag)
- Metals
- FMCG valuation names
- Some private financials
👉 Money moved from global growth → domestic earnings visibility
🌍 GLOBAL MARKETS
| Region | Trend | Driver |
|---|---|---|
| US | Tech weak | Rising yields |
| Europe | Stable | Value rotation |
| Asia | Stronger | China stimulus hopes |
| Japan | Strong | Policy + weak yen |
👉 India lagged broader Asia
💱 RATES, VOL & FLOWS
| Indicator | Weekly Read | Signal |
|---|---|---|
| India VIX ~13.3 ↑ | Volatility rising | Market cautious |
| US 10Y Yield ↑ | Higher-for-longer | IT pressure |
| FPI flows | Choppy but net positive | Selective buying |
| DII flows | Supportive | Prevents sharp fall |
| USD/INR ~90.5–90.7 | Stable | External anchor |
📌 FPI flows: ~₹11,600 Cr net equity inflows in Feb MTD
🪙 COMMODITIES & MACRO SIGNALS
- Gold firm → defensive positioning
- Silver volatile after earlier crash
- Oil mid-$60s–$70 range → inflation uncertainty
- Dollar stable-firm → EM capped
- Rising yields → growth stock derating
2️⃣ MACRO & FLOWS — KEY SIGNALS
Risk Sentiment
Institutions reduced beta exposure rather than exiting risk:
- Selling rallies
- Buying selective cyclicals
- Avoiding global growth sectors
Global Macro Read
- US CPI: 2.4% headline, 2.6% core
- Disinflation intact but sticky components remain
- Fed cuts delayed, not cancelled
👉 Markets repricing valuations, not earnings collapse
3️⃣ POLICY & GEOPOLITICAL HIGHLIGHTS
🇮🇳 India–US Trade Deal (9 Feb)
Historic agreement announced with phased tariff reductions and market access expansion.
Impact
- Export visibility improves (textiles, pharma, autos)
- Supported return of foreign flows
👉 Positive structural signal amid short-term volatility
🇮🇳 RBI Policy & Liquidity
- Repo: 5.25% unchanged
- FY26 GDP: 7.4%
- Inflation: ~2.1%
- Active FX management near ₹90–91
Impact:
Supports banks • caps valuations • keeps market range-bound
🌏 Global Geopolitics
- Russia–China energy dynamics monitored
- Japan policy shift supportive for equities
- No major escalation in major conflicts during week
🛢 Energy & Inflation
- Oil stable but not falling
→ Delays global rate cuts
🏗️ India Growth & Structural Signals
- Fastest-growing G20 economy retained
- Manufacturing & formalisation boosting tax collections
- Government signalling vertical real-estate expansion near airports
👉 Domestic growth cycle intact
5️⃣ SECTOR & CORPORATE THEMES — INDIA
Accumulation
- PSU banks
- Defence & manufacturing
- Autos & domestic cyclicals
Profit-booking
- IT & export plays
- Metals
- Premium defensives
👉 Institutions favour earnings certainty over global growth sensitivity
⚠️ KEY RISKS
- Rising US yields
- IT earnings downgrades
- Narrow leadership
- Weak breadth
- Elevated retail positioning
👀 NEXT WEEK WATCHLIST
- Bond yield direction
- Breadth recovery
- Bank Nifty support
- IT stabilisation
- FPI participation
🧠 FININ2MIN STRATEGY SIGNAL
➡️ Avoid index chasing
➡️ Prefer domestic cyclicals & PSU themes
➡️ Avoid weak global sectors
➡️ Expect volatility expansion
➡️ Stock picking > beta
🧭 FININ2MIN BOTTOM LINE
The rally is not broad — it is rotational.
Banks are holding indices,
but participation is weakening underneath.
Market is in a positioning adjustment phase before next trend.
Current market drivers
- US bond yields
- INR stability
- Domestic capex cycle
Until global rates cool →
Expect range + rotation, not breakout
Finin2min — insight for discussion, not investment advice.
