🗓️ Period: 2 Feb’26 → 8 Feb’26
(Markets • Macro • Commodities • Policy • Global • Strategy • Finin2min)
🧭 FININ2MIN MARKET REGIME SNAPSHOT
Market Regime: Stabilisation → Selective Risk-On (Rotation-led)
Finin2min Market Regime Score (FMRS™): 4.9 / 10
👉 Weekly takeaway
Indian benchmarks delivered their best week in ~3 months, helped by the India–US trade agreement and a steady RBI policy pause, which repaired part of the Budget-week damage. The rebound remained rotation-led—large caps and quality midcaps outperformed, while smallcaps lagged. FX stability, bond yields, and global style rotation remain the dominant swing factors.
📊 FININ2MIN QUANT SCORECARD (FQSM™)
| Metric | Score | Interpretation | Market implication |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk Sentiment Index | 5.6 / 10 ↑ | Fear eased; volatility cooled | Tactical risk-taking |
| Liquidity Score | 4.7 / 10 → | Dollar & rates still restrictive | Quality > leverage |
| Trend Strength – India | 5.2 / 10 ↑ | Recovery from lows | Rotation, not breakout |
| Trend Strength – Global | 6.0 / 10 → | Mixed leadership | Style selectivity |
| Macro Stress Indicator | 6.4 / 10 ↓ | Stress moderating | Risk premia easing |
📊 WEEKLY MOVEMENT TABLES
🇮🇳 INDIA — EQUITY INDICES (NSE/BSE)
| Index | Prior Week Close | 6 Feb Close | WoW % | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | ~25,320.65 | 25,693.70 | +1.4–1.5% | 🔼 | Best week in ~3 months |
| Sensex | ~82,500–82,600 | 83,580 | ~+1.5% | 🔼 | Recovery |
| Nifty Midcap 100 | ~57,700 | 59,502.70 | ~+3.0% | 🔼🔼 | Catch-up rally |
| Nifty Smallcap 100 | ~16,900 | ~16,940 | ~+0.5–0.8% | ➖ | Lagging |
👉 Trend: Stabilisation led by large caps & midcaps
👉 Signal: Risk appetite returning selectively, not broadly
🏭 INDIA — SECTORAL PERFORMANCE (WEEKLY)
| Sector | Weekly Bias | Commentary |
|---|---|---|
| Banking & Financials | 🔼 | PSU + private banks led |
| FMCG / Staples | 🔼 | Defensive stability |
| Capital Goods / Infra | 🔼 | Capex optimism |
| IT | 🔽 | Global tech weakness |
| Metals | ➖ | Gold steady, silver shock |
| Real Estate | 🔼 | Housing & tax incentives |
🌍 GLOBAL — EQUITY MARKETS
| Index | WoW % | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | −0.1% | ➖ | Flat / consolidation |
| Nasdaq | −1.8% | 🔽 | Tech weakness |
| Dow Jones | +2.5% | 🔼🔼 | Value rotation |
| FTSE 100 | +1.4% | 🔼 | Banks & energy led |
👉 Clear style rotation: Value & defensives outperformed growth
👉 Macro read: This is rotation, not broad risk-on, consistent with higher-for-longer rates
🪙 COMMODITIES —
🟡 GOLD
| Metric | Week Start | Week End | WoW | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (USD/oz) | ~4,900 | ~4,850–4,900 | ~-1% | ➖ | Consolidation |
| Gold (INR / 10g) | ~₹1.50L | ₹1.56–1.6L | ~+3–4% | 🔼 | FX-led support |
⚪ SILVER
| Market | Level | Weekly Context | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Silver (USD/oz) | ~$77–78 | Rebound after multi-day crash from triple-digit levels | 🔽🔼 | Short-covering |
| Silver (MCX INR/kg) | ~₹2.49L | Fell from ~₹3.5L to ~₹2.3L low; stabilised near ₹2.5L | 🔽🔽🔽 | Forced deleveraging |
| MCX OI | Contracting | OI ↓ ~35–40% during crash | ⚠️ | Liquidation stress |
👉 Interpretation: Silver confirms liquidity stress, not trend recovery.
🛢️ CRUDE OIL
| Commodity | Week Start | Week End | WoW | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | ~$71–72 | ~$70–71 | Flat | ➖ | Growth capped |
| WTI | ~$65 | ~$64–65 | Flat | ➖ | Demand cautious |
💱 FX & BOND YIELDS
| Asset | Week Start | Week End | Trend | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD/INR | ~91.3–91.4 | ~90.7 | 🔽 | INR recovery |
| DXY | ~105.0 | ~104.8–105.0 | ➖ | Dollar firm |
| India 10Y | ~6.70% | ~6.71% | ➖ | Stable / slightly firmer |
| US 10Y | ~4.10% | ~4.05–4.10% | ➖ | Sticky rates |
🧠 INDIA POLICY & MACRO
RBI MPC (6 Feb 2026)
- Repo: 5.25% (held) | Stance: Neutral
- FY26 GDP: 7.4% (raised) | Inflation: slightly higher
Market read: Prolonged pause—not imminent cuts; supportive for INR & bonds, caps rate-sensitive rallies.
Fiscal & structural
- Budget 2026: Higher gross borrowing; fiscal glide path watched
- STT hike (F&O): Suppresses leverage/speculation
- RBI dividend: ₹2.11L Cr FY25 actual; ₹3.16L Cr budgeted FY27
- Economic Survey: 6.8–7.2% growth, PLI & manufacturing drivers
📉 FLOWS, DERIVATIVES & VOLATILITY
| Indicator | Weekly Trend | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| FPI flows | Selling → cautious buying | Stabilisation |
| DII flows | Supportive | Market floor |
| Nifty PCR | Near / slightly >1 | Neutralising |
| India VIX | Cooling from Budget spike | Risk premium easing |
🌏 GEO-ECONOMIC & POLITICAL UPDATES
- India–US trade agreement: Phased tariff cuts anchor medium-term optimism
- Middle East: Diplomacy eased near-term risk premium
- Global macro: Firm USD & real rates shape EM/commodities
- Asia geopolitics: NK signalling keeps tail risks alive
⚠️ KEY RISKS
- USD/yield re-acceleration
- Silver-led volatility spillovers
- Geopolitical escalation
- Earnings disappointment (IT/cyclicals)
👀 EVENTS TO WATCH — NEXT WEEK
- US CPI / PPI
- India CPI & RBI communication
- FPI flow confirmation
- Gold–silver divergence
- Global CB commentary
🧠 FININ2MIN STRATEGY SIGNAL
➡️ Selective equities > broad beta
➡️ Large caps & quality midcaps > smallcaps
➡️ Liquidity & FX > narratives
➡️ Gold = hedge | Silver = volatility gauge
🧭 FININ2MIN BOTTOM LINE
India’s best week in ~3 months was a stabilisation phase—not a new bull leg.
With RBI signalling a long pause and global markets in style rotation, expect selective upside and consolidation, not runaway rallies.
Market data and developments are based on live updates, news coverage, and financial sources as of the end of today’s session. Finin2min content is for market insight and discussion only. Not investment advice.
