Markets • Macro • Commodities • Policy • Corporates • Global Indices Close • Finin2min

📊 INDIA — MARKET SNAPSHOT (Close)

• Nifty 50: 25,343 (+0.66%)
• Sensex: 82,345 (+0.60%)

👉 Benchmarks extended gains amid follow-through buying and supportive global cues.

Sectoral Breadth

• Leaders: Oil & Gas (+3.4%), Metals (+2.3%), Media
• Laggards: FMCG, Pharma (marginally lower)

👉 Rotation towards cyclicals and commodities continued.

Driver:
“Gains driven by follow-through buying post India–EU FTA announcement and supportive global cues.”

🌍 GLOBAL MARKETS — MACRO TONE

• US dollar stabilised after a sharp selloff.
• Euro held near recent highs.
• Gold remained at or near record levels.

👉 Global regime: equities resilient, macro hedges strengthening.

“Fed expected to hold rates, per market pricing.”

📉 DERIVATIVES & POSITIONING (India)

India VIX

• India VIX: ~13.5 (-6%)

👉 Volatility still above early-Jan lows but easing.

Interpretation:

• Softening VIX + rising index = constructive, but still hedged, risk-on.
• Institutional behaviour suggests caution rather than conviction.

📊 NIFTY KEY LEVELS (Options-derived)

Resistance Zones

• 25,500 → major call OI wall
• 25,800 → breakout trigger

Support Zones

• 25,000 → psychological + put base
• 24,700–24,750 → structural support

👉 Market structure: range with upside bias

🧩 F&O OI HEATMAP

CALL OI (Supply)

• 25,500: heavy
• 25,800: secondary

PUT OI (Demand)

• 25,000: strong
• 24,700: structural

👉 Insight:

• Upside capped near 25,500 unless macro trigger.
• Downside protected above 24,700 unless risk shock.

🧮 MACRO & FLOWS

🇮🇳 India Flows

• FPIs: marginal net buyers
• DIIs: sizeable net buyers

👉 Liquidity remains supportive despite global uncertainty.

🌍 Global Macro

• Dollar near recent lows.
• Gold near record highs.
• Bond yields sensitive to Fed guidance.

👉 Macro takeaway:
Policy and political uncertainty are overshadowing near-term growth data in pricing.

🏛 INDIA-SPECIFIC POLICY — INDIA–EU FTA

• Tariffs scrapped immediately on ~90% of Indian exports to the EU.
• Coverage rises to ~93% over 7 years.
• Concessions eventually cover >99% of exports.

👉 Structural implication:
Long-term positive for exports, manufacturing, and capital flows.

🌍 GLOBAL POLICY DEVELOPMENTS

• Fed expected to pause; guidance remains the key risk variable.
• Currency and policy uncertainty driving cross-asset volatility.

👉 Policy theme:
Monetary stability vs geopolitical and fiscal volatility.

🪙 COMMODITIES

• Gold: ~$5,200–5,300/oz, near record highs
• Silver: near record territory, high volatility
• Brent crude: near 4-month highs in the high-$60s

👉 Interpretation:

• Precious metals: safe-haven demand dominates.
• Oil: supported by a mix of supply factors and risk sentiment.

💱 FX & RATES

• USD: stabilised after a sharp decline, but remains under pressure vs majors.
• INR: stable with mild depreciation bias.
• US 10Y yield: range-bound, sensitive to Fed tone.

👉 Macro implication:
FX volatility is acting as a key early indicator of shifts in risk sentiment.

📊 SECTORAL ROTATION — INDIA

🟢 Relative Leaders

• Oil & Gas
• Metals
• Media
• Select banks

🔴 Relative Laggards

• FMCG
• Pharma
• Select defensives

👉 Rotation signal:
Cyclicals outperform defensives → mild risk-on regime.

🏢 CORPORATE HIGHLIGHTS

• ONGC & Oil India rallied strongly with oil & gas index strength.
• Asian Paints declined sharply post-earnings.
• SBI hit a fresh 52-week high amid banking support.

👉 Corporate theme:
Stock-specific alpha dominating index movement.

🗓 KEY ECONOMIC EVENTS — TODAY

• Continued rally in gold amid macro uncertainty.
• USD stabilisation after recent volatility.
• India–EU FTA sentiment driving domestic equities.

👀 EVENTS TO WATCH

🇮🇳 India

• Union Budget positioning
• FPI flow trend
• Nifty breakout above 25,500

🌍 Global

• Fed policy statement & Powell commentary
• US inflation data
• USD index trend
• Mega-tech earnings

🧮 FININ2MIN MACRO RISK SCORE

👉 Composite Macro Risk Score: 6.1 / 10
➡ Elevated but not systemic.

📊 NEXT-DAY TRADING BIAS

Base Case (60%)

• Range: 25,000 – 25,550
• Bias: mildly bullish / buy-on-dips
• Preferred themes: metals, energy, select banks

Bull Case (25%)

• Breakout above 25,500 → 25,800–26,000

Bear Case (15%)

• Breakdown below 25,000 → 24,700

👉 Key trigger:
Fed guidance + USD trajectory

🧠 FININ2MIN — INSTITUTIONAL CLOSING SUMMARY

✅ India: cyclical rotation strengthening, but trend remains event-driven.
✅ Global: rare regime where equities rise while gold surges → macro hedging dominates.
✅ Derivatives: OI structure confirms range-bound market with upside bias.
✅ Macro: policy uncertainty, not earnings, is the dominant pricing factor.
✅ Flows: domestic liquidity continues to stabilise markets amid cautious foreign positioning.

👉 Finin2min Verdict:
Markets are in a policy-driven “risk-on with hedges” regime.
Expect:

• range-bound indices,
• sharp sector rotation,
• event-driven volatility around Fed + Budget.

Market data and developments are based on live updates, news coverage, and financial sources as of the end of today’s session. Finin2min content is for market insight and discussion only. Not investment advice.