Week Ending: Friday, 9 January 2026
(Markets • Macro • Commodities • Policy • Global • Strategy)
1️⃣ Market Performance — India & Global
🇮🇳 India Equity Markets
| Index | Week Open (2 Jan) | Week Close (9 Jan) | WoW Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nifty 50 | ~26,328 | ~25,683 | –2.4% |
| Sensex | ~85,762* | ~83,576 | –2.5% (approx.) |
*Sensex early-week level inferred from opening trading bands.
Market action
- Five consecutive sessions of decline
- Midcaps & smallcaps underperformed, confirming risk-off breadth
- Selling driven by policy, tariff and FX concerns, not earnings downgrades
🌍 Global Equities & Flows
- U.S. markets closed near record levels (S&P 500, Dow, Nasdaq), showing relative resilience.
- Global equity funds saw ~USD 6 bn net outflows, the first weekly outflow after multiple weeks of inflows.
Weekly Scorecard
| Asset Class | Trend |
|---|---|
| India equities | ↓ Weak |
| U.S. equities | ↑ Near record highs |
| Global equity flows | ↓ Outflows |
| Commodities | Mixed (Gold ↑, Oil →) |
| FX | INR pressured; USD firm |
2️⃣ Macro & Flows — Key Signals
🔹 Risk Sentiment & Capital Flows
- Foreign institutional selling dominated India, reflecting heightened tariff and policy risk.
- India FPI equity outflows estimated at ~₹4,000 crore for the week.
- Globally, flows rotated toward money-market and bond funds, signalling defensive positioning.
🔹 Currencies & Rates
- USD/INR: ~90.1–90.2 by week-end, reflecting dollar strength and EM caution.
- U.S. labour market (Dec 2025):
- Payrolls: ~50,000 vs ~60–70k consensus
- Unemployment rate edged lower
→ Supports a slower-but-stable growth narrative, delaying aggressive Fed easing expectations.
3️⃣ Commodities — Weekly Open vs Close
| Commodity | Week Open | Week Close | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Gold (India, 24K) | ~₹1.36 lakh / 10g | ~₹1.38 lakh+ | Safe-haven demand |
| Gold (Global) | ~$4,350/oz | >$4,460/oz | Policy & geopolitical risk |
| Silver (Global) | ~$77/oz | ~$79+/oz | Haven + industrial tailwind |
| Brent Crude | ~$61–63/bbl | ~$62–63/bbl | OPEC+ output pause |
Commodity read
- Gold & silver clearly reflected risk hedging
- Oil remained range-bound, supported by supply discipline but capped by medium-term surplus concerns
4️⃣ Policy & Geopolitical Highlights
RBI — Monetary Policy & Liquidity
- Repo at 5.25% after ~125 bps cumulative cuts in 2025
- System liquidity remains ample; active FX intervention around ₹89.7–90.2
- Further rate cuts unlikely before H1 FY27 due to external pressures (oil, FX, capital flows)
US–India Trade Tensions — Escalation Risk
- The U.S. administration warned of higher tariffs on India linked to Russian oil imports.
- Proposed legislation discusses punitive tariffs (up to 500%) on countries buying Russian oil.
- The U.S. accounts for ~18% of India’s exports, raising downside risks to:
- Export growth
- Current account balance
- INR stability
👉 Trade policy uncertainty emerged as a primary market volatility driver, with investors closely tracking the U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling timeline.
SEBI — Compliance-First Markets
- 2 January circular introduced:
- Phased net-worth increases for merchant bankers
- Liquid net-worth requirements
- Mandatory self-categorisation
- Impact: Long-term market integrity positive; short-term adjustment costs for weaker intermediaries
🛢 OPEC+ — Output Pause Extended
- OPEC+ extended its output pause through Jan–Mar 2026
- Despite geopolitical noise and supply disruptions, production discipline supported crude prices
5️⃣ Sector & Corporate Highlights — India
- BHEL: Volatile on tender-policy and geopolitical procurement chatter
- Vodafone Idea: Stock rallied on debt-related developments
- Energy trade dynamics: Remain fluid amid sanctions and geopolitical negotiations; no confirmed changes announced during the week
📌 Bottom Line — Finin2min Take
This was a policy- and geopolitics-driven repricing week, not a breakdown in fundamentals.
- Indian markets corrected sharply on tariff uncertainty, FII outflows and weak breadth
- Safe-haven assets (gold & silver) outperformed, while oil remained range-bound
- Policy, trade and FX narratives dominated price action, overshadowing early-2026 optimism
🔮 What to Watch Next Week
- U.S. Supreme Court tariff ruling clarity
- Key U.S. inflation & labour data (Fed path)
- India FX stability & trade policy signals
- OPEC+ inventories and compliance
👉 Early-2026 markets are being driven less by liquidity and more by policy risk, geopolitics and balance-sheet quality. Selectivity, not speed, remains the dominant strategy.
Sector-wise Weekly Performance Table
| Sector | WoW Performance | Status | Key Driver |
|---|---|---|---|
| Metals | –4% to –6% | 🔴 Underperformer | Global risk-off, China concerns |
| Realty | –4% to –5% | 🔴 Underperformer | Rate-cut fatigue |
| Auto | –3% to –5% | 🔴 Underperformer | Valuation reset |
| Oil & Gas | –3% to –5% | 🔴 Underperformer | Equity correction despite oil support |
| Midcaps / Smallcaps | –4% to –6% | 🔴 Weak | Liquidity & FII selling |
| Private Banks | –2% to –3% | 🟠 Neutral | Credit strong, valuations stretched |
| PSU Banks | –1% to –2% | 🟡 Relative hold | Policy support, valuation comfort |
| IT Services | –1% to –2% | 🟡 Defensive | USD hedge, earnings visibility |
| Pharma | –0.5% to –1.5% | 🟡 Defensive | Export stability |
| Consumer Durables | 0% to +1% | 🟢 Outperformer | Defensive rotation |
| Defence | +1% to +3% | 🟢 Outperformer | Order inflows, policy backing |
| Capital Goods / Infra | –1% to –2% | 🟡 Mixed | Capex optimism vs risk-off |
Clear patterns
- ❌ High-beta cyclicals sold off first (Metals, Realty, Auto)
- ✅ Policy-linked and defensive sectors held up better (PSU Banks, Pharma, Defense)
- 📉 Midcaps & smallcaps bore the brunt, confirming risk-off, not stock-specific selling
What drove the rotation
- US–India tariff risk & Supreme Court overhang
- FII equity outflows
- USD strength → defensive preference
- Valuation reset after strong 2025 rally
📌 Finin2min Editorial Note
Sectoral action this week reinforced a classic risk-off template: high-beta cyclicals corrected, while policy-backed and domestic defensives (Defence, Durables, PSU Banks) showed relative resilience.
